This year, if the Academy really wanted to be fair, they should dole out awards out to every single nominee as encouragement for studios to continue to offer superior fare.  But where would the sport be in that?

As a media observer making best use of my industry inside sources I submit for your approval my predictions for the annual Oscars®.  As a film critic with the deepest respect for the Liveliest Art, I also proffer my opinion as to which nominees most deserve recognition. 

And may the best nominees win.

BEST PICTURE:  
The five films nominated for this category are each so unique that choosing one movie as being superior to the others defies reason.  How can anyone realistically expect to make a fair decision between (THE PIANIST) an autobiographical account of the Holocaust, (THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS) a fantasy epic, (THE HOURS) a tour de force in ensemble acting, (CHICAGO) a film version of a Broadway musical, and (GANGS OF NEW YORK) an historical exploration of the turbulent birth of the America’s (and the world’s) greatest city?

My personal choice for Best Picture is THE PIANIST, which is arguably the greatest movie ever made about the Holocaust.  THE PIANIST has an unparalleled verisimilitude, because it was made by an actual Holocaust survivor, Roman Polanski, who is arguably the world’s greatest living director.  The haunting tale is more than a masterpiece of cinema.  It is an important historical document and a testament to the triumph of the soul.

Academy voting members will probably choose CHICAGO with good reason.  Following the success of last year’s MOULIN ROUGE, it offers further proof that the movie musical is back to stay.  CHICAGO epitomizes everything that Hollywood does best.  A movie with something for everybody, CHICAGO has singing, dancing, comedy, drama, sex appeal -- and all that jazz.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Roman Polanski should win for directing THE PIANIST.  Although he was nominated for CHINATOWN (1974) and TESS (1980), he never won an Oscar®.  THE PIANIST is a masterpiece that deals with subject matter that Polanski never previously explored, because it touched so closely on his personal tragedy.  As a child, Polanski narrowly escaped being sent to Auschwitz, where his mother was murdered by the Nazis. As a filmmaker, Roman Polanski deserves recognition for his courage in finally facing the ghosts of his past and for his impressive body of work that spans a unique and remarkable career.  But it is politically unlikely that Polanski will win, because he is a Hollywood outsider, who has lived in France for the past twenty-five years and has not campaigned for the Oscar®.

Martin Scorsese will probably win for directing GANGS OF NEW YORK.  The director of MEAN STREETS, TAXI DIVER, RAGING BULL, and GOODFELLAS is also universally regarded as one of the world’s greatest living filmmakers, but has also never won an Oscar®.  He commands unparalleled international respect for his artistic achievements and his enormous contributions to film preservation.  So it seems axiomatic that Scorsese will finally win his overdue Academy Award.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
In CHICAGO, Richard Gere demonstrates (like Nicole Kidman did last year in MOULIN ROUGE) an incredible range of diversity.  But unlike Kidman, Gere was not even nominated for what is the best performance of his career and truly the best performance of the year.  The Academy also egregiously ignored Leonardo DiCaprio, who was dazzling as the lead role in GANGS OF NEW YORK, but who was also not nominated five years ago, when he helmed the cast of TITANIC.

Of the five actors nominated, Jack Nicholson has the edge.  In ABOUT SCHMIDT, he delivers his most sensitive and subdued performance to date.  Should Nicholson win for his portrayal of a lonely widower forced to reexamine the values of his life, he would deservingly establish a new record for receiving four Oscars®, which would be the most ever won by a male performer.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Renée Zellweger should win for doing in CHICAGO what Nicole Kidman did the previous year in MOULIN ROUGE. In the role of Roxie Hart, Zellweger proves that she can sing, dance, and act -- and she’s also funny!  But too often the Academy ignores the demands of musical and comedy performances.  Usually Oscars® are given to performers for serious dramatic roles.

Nicole Kidman will probably win for her flawless rendition of novelist Virginia Wolfe in THE HOURS.  But because the movie was an ensemble piece, it seems unfair that any of the three actresses (Nicole Kidman, Meryl Streep, and Julianne Moore) should be singled out as the lead actress.  Their performances were so interdependent that the trio should have been awarded a special three-way tie for the Best Supporting Actress category. Although the always resplendent Kidman shines in THE HOURS, the Academy will probably give her the Oscar® to make up for the fact that they overlooked her superior past performances in MOULIN ROUGE, THE OTHERS, EYES WIDE SHUT, and TO DIE FOR.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
I would love to see Queen Latifah win an Oscar® for her role in CHICAGO, because she nearly steals the show with her portrayal of prison warden Mama Morton. But she faces stiff competition from CHICAGO costar Catherine Zeta-Jones, who will likely win for her spectacular performance of the cabaret-singer-turned-murderess Velma Kelly.  Especially if Zellweger were to win for Best Actress, Zeta-Jones would have to win for Best Supporting Actress, because their roles are so perfectly complimentary and intertwined that any other decision would seem to be an inequity.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Paul Newman deserves to win for his quiet and complex portrayal of the gangster patriarch John Rooney in ROAD TO PERDITION.  Although the other four actors competing against Newman deliver fine performances in their respective films, none can hold a candle to the living legend, who builds a character so rich in subtext that he is mesmerizing.  It is inconceivable that Newman would not win the Oscar® for what is his finest performance since THE VERDICT in 1982.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
The award should go to Nia Vardalos for MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING, because the movie was such a crowd-pleasing and unexpected hit.  But the Oscar® will likely go to Jay Cocks, Steve Zaillian, and Kenneth Lonergan for GANGS OF NEW YORK, because of the story has an epic scope that sophisticated audiences love; and it is the most original tale of the history of Manhattan ever told .

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Ronald Harwood deserves to win for his moving and emotionally devastating existential survival story, THE PIANIST.  But David Hare will likely win for THE HOURS, because his adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel provided an ideal ensemble venue for three major actresses to display the best of their combined talents.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Pawel Edelman should win for the way his keen eye enabled him to chillingly capture the subfusc desolation of Nazi-occupied Warsaw in THE PIANIST.  But the legendary cinematographer Conrad Hall, who passed away in January, will probably win a posthumous award for his  fine (and final) work in ROAD TO PERDITION.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Colleen Atwood deserves to win for CHICAGO for bringing the sizzling sensuality of Bob Fosse’s stage show to life, because of all the films nominated in this category, it is the only movie likely to inspire a new commercial fashion craze.  (Even though the clothing creations of THE HOURS are impeccable in historic accuracy, it is unlikely that women would want to dress like the dowdy and depressed Virginia Wolfe.)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Eminem, Jeff Bass, and Luis Resto should win for “Lose Yourself” from 8 MILE.  But I don’t think Hollywood has the guts to actually give the Oscar® to a rap artist.  More likely, Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, and Larry Mullen will win for “The Hands That Built America” from GANGS OF NEW YORK, because the song is a moving tribute to New York City and has more mainstream appeal.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM:
Michael Moore is regarded as the greatest documentary filmmaker in the world today.  BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE is so entertaining and socially relevant that if Moore and Michael Donavan do not walk away with the Oscar®, the members of the Academy must be as crazy as the gun nuts portrayed in the film.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS will likely claim the Oscar® for the epic achievement of turning J. R.R. Tolkien’s Middle Earth into a virtual reality.  But it is unfair that less sensational, but brilliant and subtle visual achievements are always ignored in this category.  GANGS OF NEW YORK should have received an Academy Award nomination for Special Effects Coordinator Daniel Acon and the rest of the team of talented technical artists, who contributed to bringing Old New York vividly to life.

Phillip Glass should win the award for BEST MUSIC SCORE for his haunting composition for THE HOURS.  Bill Guttentag and Robert David Port should win for TWIN TOWERS for BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT.  THE MAN WITHOUT A PAST from Finland should take the Oscar® for BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM, .  John Jackson and Beatrice De Alba should win the award for BEST MAKEUP for their work in FRIDA for convincingly transforming Selma Hayek.  The award for BEST ART DIRECTION should go to CHICAGO.  THE BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR should be LILO & STITCH, because the old-fashioned hand-drawn images are redolent of the classic Disney movies of yesteryear. The award for BEST FILM EDITING should go to CHICAGO.  Pixar Animation Studios deserves to win another gold statue for BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM for MIKE’S NEW CAR.  Both Oscars® for BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND and BEST SOUND EDITING should go to THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS.  INJA (DOG) should win the Academy Award for BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM.