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Oscar®
2004 - A Critic's Picks
by Edward X. Young
 Throw
out your crystal ball!
Even a psychic,
acting in good faith, cannot claim to make accurate predictions
for the 2004 Academy Awards. The biggest problem for Oscar®
prognostication is that top movies released in 2003 differed so
widely and radically from each other in genre and style that the
whole thing is going to have to boil down to the particular tastes
of the majority of the voting members of the Academy of Motion
Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). True appreciation of the art
and science of filmmaking will likely mean nothing when ballots
are finally cast.
How would you
pick the winners? When you're perusing the aisles of your local
video rental store, which section do you gravitate to first? Do
you prefer thought-provoking drama to sidesplitting comedy? Do you
value truth above fiction? Do you want entertainment or
enlightenment?
As movies get
better and better, trends hint that Hollywood is finally poised
for another (and long overdue) Golden Era. Several releases of
2003 were so good that they will certainly be regarded as
"classics" someday. In certain Oscar®
categories, this ought to
make picking "the best" a painful decision for a conscientious AMPAS voter. But it will make picking a DVD or video a joy for the
movie fan as the full bumper crop of this year's top-notch
entertainment soon becomes available for rental.
Following what
has become an annual tradition, I submit for your approval my
Critic's Predictions for who will win and Critic's Picks
for who should win. Because the Academy overlooked some
moments of movie magic, I have also listed some misses that fall into
the category of "What Were They Thinking?"
In most of the
categories this year, select top contenders appear to be running
neck and neck. Although on a cursory examination, a few nominees
look like sure bets. But keep in mind that if there's one thing
the Academy has proven, over the history of the Oscars®
is that you
must expect the unexpected. There are always a few dark horses
that shoot ahead of the pack -- including at least one dubious
winner that will leave you screaming, "This race has been fixed!"
BEST
PICTURE:
You can
scratch two nominated films off the list. LOST IN TRANSLATION
(written and directed by Sofia Coppola, daughter of
legendary director Francis Ford Coppola, of THE
GODFATHER fame) stands no chance. Comedies seldom win for Best
Picture. A smart, quirky little movie like this has too much of
the
 flavor
of an independent project to beat the heavyweight competition.
The Australian-made, MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE
WORLD (based on author Patrick O'Brian's seafaring
epic) was the biggest
box office hit Down Under -- and a favorite film for naval history
buffs. But without a single actress in the cast and with naval
battle scenes of unprecedented savagery, it will alienate female
voting members of the Academy. This movie packs too much machismo.
MYSTIC
RIVER (pictured left) is a masterpiece that will be
remembered as one of the great films of its time. This powerful,
disturbing drama, deftly deals with difficult topics of child
abuse, repression, and vigilante justice. Directed by Clint
Eastwood, this film carries a lot of Hollywood clout.
SEABISCUIT
(pictured right) is for modern moviegoers as
uplifting as the real racehorse was for the Great Depression
Generation. This movie is handicapped by its early release date
and may have been forgotten by many AMPAS voting members who have the
short-term memory of goldfish. Inspiring to audiences across the
board, SEABISCUIT is the popular favorite that could
suddenly pull through in the final stretch.
The Critic’s
Pick and the Critic’s Prediction for the top prize is THE LORD
OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING. Much more than a mere movie,
it must be viewed as a complete work together with the first two
films of the series, THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF
THE RING and THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS
(both of which were also previously nominated for Best Picture,
but did not win). If the the Academy does not finally recognize this
stellar achievement, Frodo should gather up all the golden
statuettes and hurl them with the ring into the fires of Mount
Doom.
 The
most glaring omission in this category is MASKED AND ANONYMOUS (pictured
left). Created by music legend Bob Dylan and Larry
Charles, (co-producer of TV's sitcom, SEINFELD), this
subversive masterpiece may have been deemed too prophetic and
dangerous for AMPAS recognition. It is a portrait of a
near-futuristic America reduced to crumbling Third World status,
featuring an all star cast, including Bob Dylan, as
down-and-out rocker Jack Fate, Angela Bassett as Mistress,
John Goodman as impresario Uncle Sweetheart,
Penélope Cruz
as Pagan Lace,
and Mickey Roarke, who is terrifying as the President of
the United States. It's just as well it was ignored by Hollywood's
elite, because the mainstream acceptance of an Oscar®
nomination
would only cheapen this movie's rich and growing status as a
revolutionary underground cult classic.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
Three names
can be scratched. What the Hell were they thinking when they nominated
Fernando Meirelles for CITY OF GOD? Although this
movie is undeniably powerful, it's a foreign language film that is
not even nominated for Best Picture or Best Foreign Language Film,
which makes it an altogether bizarre choice. The young Sofia
Coppola is not yet seasoned enough to be considered for
LOST IN TRANSLATION. Director
Peter Weir, on the other hand, is a seasoned auteur; but
his great "Guy Flick," MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF
THE WORLD will fail to woo the majority of the Academy's voting
members.
Director
Clint Eastwood (pictured right) is one to beat. This
living legend’s nominated film MYSTIC RIVER, stands as
his crowning achievement. It is Eastwood's greatest work as
a director, in which he elicits from his cast, particularly Sean
Penn, Tim Robbins and Marcia Gay Harden, the
best performances of their careers.
The Critic's
Pick and the Critic's Prediction is Peter Jackson for doing
the impossible in faithfully and reverently realizing author J.
R. R. Tolkien's epic vision. It's the cinematic equivalent of
climbing Mount Everest. Ignoring the merits of Jackson's
masterwork would keep him in the company of such luminaries as
Orson Welles, Stanley Kubrick, Alfred Hitchcock,
and Sam Peckinpah, all of whom never won
competitive Oscars®
for directing, despite their career achievements. But Jackson
(who has twice been nominated, but has not yet won the Oscar© for
his direction of the Tolkien trilogy) can still
draw hope from the fact that Roman Polanski, who was long
ignored by the Academy, finally won his long overdue Oscar®
for
directing last
year’s THE PIANIST.
It’s a slap in
the face that Gary Ross was not even nominated for directing SEABISCUIT.
He extracts brave performances from his cast and he creates a
vivid snapshot of history that is well deserving of an Oscar®
nomination. What were they thinking?
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BEST ACTOR:
The most
egregious omission (of this and all the acting categories) is that
not a single performer from THE LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF
THE KING received a nomination this year. The Academy's
insulting implication seems to be that this unparalleled cinematic
masterpiece stands on the merit of the special effects wizardry
alone. Without the buoyancy provided by perfect ensemble acting,
the titanic trilogy would
 have
collapsed in on itself under its own enormous weight. Elijah
Wood, for instance, was a fantastic Frodo -- and he had some
mighty big shoes to fill with those hairy little Hobbit feet.
Just imagine the resulting
disaster if an actor of lesser ability, had been hired to do that
part!
The Critic's
Pick is Johnny Depp (pictured left) for his
hilarious interpretation (inspired by The Rolling Stones'
guitarist Keith Richards) of Captain Jack Sparrow in
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL. With
Depp at the helm, the Black Pearl, was the summer's most
thoroughly entertaining ride -- one of Disney studios all-time
greatest hits, and a rare treat for all ages and the entire
family.
The Critic
Predicts Sean Penn
will take the award for his devastatingly heart
wrenching and angst-ridden performance as the father of a murdered
daughter in MYSTIC RIVER. Between tears and laughter, the
Academy usually sides with tears, knocking Depp’s
performance out of the running and leaving me to wish that the
AMPAS voting members could be forced to try a half hour of live
stand-up, just to see how difficult a good comedic performance can
be.
But watch out
for Bill Murray! The former Saturday Night Live
funnyman could be the dark horse winner. Murray is a
beloved Hollywood favorite, and he's the best thing in LOST IN
TRANSLATION.
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BEST ACTRESS:
Another
category that makes you wonder what more the Academy could want from
a performer is the passing over of the resplendent redhead,
Nicole Kidman, who failed to garner even one nomination after
her three remarkable roles in three motion pictures in one year (COLD
MOUNTAIN, THE HUMAN STAIN, and DOGVILLE).
Charlize
Theron (pictured right) is the Critic's Prediction for her
passionate and haunting performance as the real-life serial
murderer Aileen Carol Wuornos in MONSTER. It’s a
complex characterization of a self-righteous
demon. Theron perfectly captures the wounded child
inside the monster, without ever letting the audience forget the
vicious crimes Wuornos committed.
The Critic's
Pick
is Diane Keaton, who was very funny and very sexy as
Jack Nicholson’s co-star in SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE.
She deserves credit for impeccable comic timing -- and also for
her courage in appearing in a full-frontal nude scene at the age
of 56. Keaton continues the trend, started by Kathy
Bates, who also appeared nude with Jack Nicholson in
ABOUT SCHMIDT. It makes you wonder what it is about Jack
Nicholson that inspires middle-aged actresses to drop their
clothes after so many years of modesty.
Samantha
Morton (IN AMERICA) and Naomi Watts (21 GRAMS)
were both impressive; but they're both long shots, as their
respective films failed to garner greater notice. It's absurd
that 13-year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes (the youngest actress
in Oscar® history to be nominated in this category) was honored
for her competent (but hardly remarkable) performance in the
highly esoteric WHALE RIDER. Hollywood should have greater
respect for artists who have honed their craft and paid their
dues.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
 Could
the members of the Academy really be this stupid? When they
overlooked the stunning portrayal of Andy Serkis
(pictured left), as Gollum in LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF
THE KING, is it possible that they were fooled into thinking that it was all a trick of
makeup and special effects? Although Gollum is partly cyber-created,
Serkis nearly steals the show based on the raw power of his
performance. It’s no small feat to shine through the special
effects like a beacon brighter than the light of the titular ring,
while still creating a despicable villain who is also so
endearing.
But of the actors nominated, the Critic's Pick and the Critic's
Prediction are one in the same: In MYSTIC RIVER, Tim
Robbins turns out a tour de force in the role of Dave
Boyle, a
dysfunctional man torn apart by rage and despair arisen out of
repressed memories of the horrific abuse he suffered in his childhood.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Tell Renée Zellweger (pictured right)
to "Come and get it!" She's the Critic's Pick and Prediction for her
role in COLD MOUNTAIN. Although at times, as Ruby, the irascible
rustic, Zellweger appears to be channeling the spirit
of the late Irene Ryan (Granny Clampett on
TV's THE BEVERLY HILLBILLIES),
her character provides
welcome comic relief from the overwhelmingly tragedy of this Civil
War Epic.
Another huge
miss on the part of the Academy is their failure to recognize
Ludivine Sagnier, who was superb in last year's sexiest and
smartest thriller, SWIMMING POOL. The French-English
co-production, also featured the legendary Charlotte Rampling,
still sleek and sizzling at 58, and who was also cheated out of a
nomination for an outstanding performance as a mystery writer, who
may or may not have witnessed and/or participated in a savage
crime of passion.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
 Sofia
Coppola can't be refused an Oscar® for LOST IN TRANSLATION, which
boasts the cleverest and the most original script of all the nominated
original screenplays.
Since the young Coppola (pictured left) has three nominations for Producer
(Best Picture), Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay, it
would be insulting if she doesn't win something. And who wants to
make Executive Producer Daddy Francis Ford Coppola mad?
Screenwriters Bob Dylan
and Larry Charles deserve the Oscar® for MASKED AND
ANONYMOUS, the year's most visionary head trip. Like
Dylan's singing, it's frequently incomprehensible, yet always
brilliant and mind-blowing. But this countercultural gem wasn’t even
nominated!
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
 The Critic's
Pick and the Critic's Prediction is that Peter Jackson
(pictured right), Philippa Boyens, and
Fran Walsh, get the Oscar® for
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING for the Herculean
task of adapting Tolkien's literary epic. But be careful if you're
betting, because MYSTIC
RIVER or SEABISCUIT could still win this race by a
nose!
Nevertheless, it
seems mean-spirited that Academy did not give a congenial
nomination to John August for writing BIG FISH.
Adapted from Daniel Wallace's novel, this phantasmagorical
fable of a father and son relationship is a genuine tear-jerker
that never stoops to maudlin tactics. And that's a rare
feat!
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
 There
is no contest here!
Although Walt Disney’s BROTHER BEAR and the French-produced
THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE are charming, they cannot
outshine the little lost clown fish, who has won the hearts of
children of all ages from sea to shining sea. The award already
belongs to the Walt Disney/Pixar Animation Studios co-production
FINDING NEMO (pictured left). The instant
family classic is the best underwater-animated adventure since
Disney's THE LITTLE MERMAID. It's the safest bet of the
evening!
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
The French Language feature from Canada
directed by
Denys Arcand, THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS, the long-awaited
sequel to THE DECLINE OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE (1986),
was a surprise hit at the 41st New York Film Festival, making it
the odds on favorite.
 But ZEMSTA,
from Poland and directed by 77-year-old Andrej Wajda,
deserves the award. A
farcical fable of rival noble families plotting revenge, while
forced to live under the same roof, ZEMSTA stars Roman Polanski
(last year’s Oscar®
winner for Best Director), who as an actor displays a flair for
commedia dell'arte he has not exhibited since THE FEARLESS VAMPIRE
KILLERS OR: PARDON ME, BUT YOUR TEETH ARE IN MY NECK (1967).
Although the Academy honored director Wajda in 2000 with a
special Oscar®
in recognition of his lifetime achievement, they
completely overlooked the merits of his recent masterpiece! And
Roman Polanski (pictured right), who is as funny as Johnny Depp, was
cheated out of a nomination for Best Actor of the Year. What were
they thinking?
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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
 The
radiant beauty of Nicole Kidman (pictured left) and
the bloody horrors of war are both spectacularly visually realized
in
COLD
MOUNTAIN, by
cameraman
John Seale, the Critic's Pick and Prediction to win this award. But it seems like
clear ignorance that Neil Cervin and Andrew Lesnie were cheated
out of a nomination for their breathtaking cinematography in THE LORD OF
THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING. Is it possible that
AMPAS professionals who are considered the crème de la crème of the
art of filmmaking could be so mesmerized by special effects that
they missed the cinematic brilliance captured through the lens of Cervin
and Lesnie's camera?
BEST MUSIC (Score):
 The music in
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING by Howard Shore
is as dream-like and unforgettably beautiful as the visual imagery
and will surely win. Although Bob Dylan (pictured
right) would
probably say "Don’t Think Twice It’s Alright," I find it hard to
swallow his omission from a category at the heart of his genius.
Yet, he failed to get a nod from the Academy for his work in
MASKED AND ANONYMOUS -- probably because the
Academy feared his
protest songs could incite an overthrow of the government.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
 The
high seas 19th
century naval artillery battles in MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE
FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD (pictured left) pack such a punch
that you'll leave the theatre feeling like you fought with the
British Royal Navy in the Napoleonic War. The
sailors' swashbuckling swordfight scenes against the living dead
under the light of the full moon in PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE
CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL are bone chilling. But as a whole film,
from start to finish, THE LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING
exceeds the wildest expectations with astonishing imagery --
making it the Critic's Pick and Critic's Prediction to win for this category.
But when you hear
that cannon fire, you'll agree that MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE
FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD deserves the Academy Awards for both BEST
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING and BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN, BEST
ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP, BEST ART DIRECTION and the Oscar®
for BEST ORIGINAL SONG ("Into
the West," performed by Annie Lennox) all
unquestionably belong to
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING.
The shots in SEABISCUIT
are flawlessly assembled, building a heart-pounding
tension that has you on the edge of you seat from starting gate to
finish line, making it
a sure bet for BEST FILM EDITING.
The award for
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE belongs to THE FOG OF WAR,
by the world's foremost documentary filmmaker, Errol Morris,
who once shot the legendary German filmmaker, Werner Herzog,
eating his own shoe. CHERNOBYL HEART should win for
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT. NIBBLES may have its teeth
locked onto the award for BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM. The
makers of MOST (THE BRIDGE) have the most likely chance of
claiming the honor for BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM.
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